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https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/07/25/tsai-ing-wens-prospects-for-re-election-have-improved

Taiwan’s president
Tsai Ing-wen’s prospects for re-election have improved

台灣總統 蔡英文的尋求連任 漸入佳境

(經濟學人也直接稱呼台灣總統了)

The Economist | Jul 25th 2019 | TAIPEI



Following a dismal winter you can’t count on a good summer, yet Tsai Ing-wen
is making hay. Early in the year, Taiwan’s president had appeared mired in
gloom. Ordinary Taiwanese were disillusioned with her stewardship of the
economy. Her Democratic Progressive Party (dpp) had fared so badly in
municipal elections that she felt compelled to step down as party leader. To
compound it all, Xi Jinping, China’s ruler, had made it clear that China,
which claims Taiwan as its own and which has ostracised Ms Tsai and her
independence-leaning party, was in no mind to make life easier for her or for
Taiwan.

從去年冬天大選重挫開始講，習近平也不會讓蔡好過


What a difference a few months make. First, Ms Tsai emerged surprisingly
strongly from a primary contest in which she beat off William Lai Ching-te,
the former mayor of Tainan, who challenged her to be the dpp candidate to
contest the next presidential election. The primary, curiously, is decided by
taking opinion polls of voters. Some experts suspect Ms Tsai’s camp of
massaging the outcome. But there is no doubt that Ms Tsai’s firm support for
pro-democracy protests currently roiling Hong Kong (see article) boosted her
standing at home. She has since welcomed several dozen Hong Kong protesters
who reportedly intend to seek political asylum in Taiwan. By contrast, the
protests have thrown the opposition Kuomintang (kmt), which is conciliatory
towards China, off balance.

幾個月內情況大大改變，DPP初選蔡表現出乎意料的強勁
香港又助她一臂之力

With a fair wind at her back, Ms Tsai breezed off to America on July 11th.
Her two-day stay in New York, complete with a ferry ride near the Statue of
Liberty, was intended to ooze normality, but visits by presidents of Taiwan
are unusual and heavily circumscribed. The country has no formal diplomatic
relations with America, along with the many other nations that acknowledge
the “one-China principle” insisted upon in Beijing. Officially, Ms Tsai was
en route to a handful of diplomatic allies in the Caribbean. But her stay was
one of the longest that America has granted to a leader of the robustly
democratic island.

出訪美洲，紐約停留兩天，還坐船看了自由女神像
這是歷任總統中，美方給予的最長時間

China thundered in vain that America should cancel her visit, during which
she met members of Congress and delivered a speech at Columbia University in
defence of liberal, democratic values. “Taiwan is not, and will not be,
intimidated,” she said at a reception in New York with representatives of
Taiwan’s 17 remaining diplomatic allies. Her Caribbean visit was book-ended
by a further two days in Colorado.

中國氣噗噗(但沒用)
蔡見了國會成員，在哥倫比亞大學演講
最後還排了兩天在科羅拉多

It all signals an unusual degree of approval by champions of democracy in
Congress and by China hawks in Donald Trump’s administration. They have seen
tensions with China rise over trade and cyber-security. Taiwan, too, faces
increasing military and diplomatic pressure over Ms Tsai’s refusal to accept
that her island is part of the Chinese motherland. A Chinese defence white
paper this week repeated China’s threat of the use of force to prevent Taiwan
’s independence. Yet Ms Tsai has been at pains not wantonly to rile China,
unhinge relations across the Taiwan Strait and so risk dragging America into
a dangerous conflict.

這些都顯示了來自美方的不尋常的認可
川普政府在和中國打貿易戰，中國對台灣不放棄武力....

Marks of strengthening relations with Taiwan have mostly been small yet
symbolic. On a previous transit in Houston, Ms Tsai visited nasa, becoming
the first Taiwanese leader to set foot in an American federal agency since
1979, when America broke off diplomatic relations in favour of China. In May
Mr Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton, met his Taiwanese
counterpart, David Lee, another first.

台美關係的強化，雖是小規模的改變，卻有指標性
上次蔡訪問 NASA，是台美斷交後台灣總統第一次訪問美國聯邦層級的機構
五月，川普政府的 national security adviser (相當於台灣的國安會)
和蔡政府國安會的 李大維見面
這也是第一次

Senior members of Ms Tsai’s government joke that having no formal relations
with America is an advantage, since Mr Trump, who sometimes seems to prefer
autocracies to democracies and who seeks an elusive trade deal with China, is
less likely to notice the thickening of ties. The president has signed off on
a more tangible measure of assistance for Taiwan: approval for a long-planned
sale of arms, worth $2.2bn, that includes tanks and Stinger anti-aircraft
missiles. The sale of more than 60 f-16 fighter jets looks likely soon, too.

對台的軍售內容


China claims to be outraged by the recent sales and has threatened to impose
sanctions on the American companies involved. Yet they are all of a piece
with long-standing bipartisan support for Taiwan’s defence. On July 24th a
us warship made what America called a routine transit of the Taiwan Strait.
In truth, much American-supplied equipment is old and vulnerable to China’s
new precision-guided weapons. But the sales remain a powerful signal of
America’s backing.

中國威脅要制裁這些美國武器公司
7月24日，美國軍艦通過台灣海峽
軍售的內容顯然不及中國最新型的精密導向武器，
但仍強烈顯示美國對台灣的支持


They also do no harm to Ms Tsai’s standing at home—the f-16s had been
requested as far back as 2006. Campaigning for Taiwan’s presidential and
legislative elections next January is heating up. On July 15th, in a similar
primary process to the dpp’s, the kmt named Han Kuo-yu, mayor of the city of
Kaohsiung, as its presidential candidate. Voters thus face a stark choice. Mr
Han, whose family hails from the mainland, is a voluble proponent of
appeasing China. He says binding Taiwan more closely to China’s vast markets
will bring prosperity. But it may also imperil Taiwan’s autonomy.

F16軍購早自2006就提出
明年大選開始加溫
七月十五，KMT初選韓國瑜勝出
韓能言善辯，對中國態度比較軟
韓主張連結台灣和中國市場會促進繁榮，但這可能會傷害台灣的自主性

In contrast to the mousy Ms Tsai, Mr Han is a natural orator with a common
touch. He drives crowds of older, working-class and rural followers wild.
With 45% support in the primary, he blew past the runner-up, Terry Gou, a
billionaire maker of iPhones, with 28%.

韓的支持者: 年紀比較大，勞工階級，城市之外
打敗富翁郭台銘

Mr Han calls Taiwanese independence “more scary” than syphilis. He refers
to Taiwan as a region (that is, of China) rather than the country it is. Yet
the Hong Kong protests have forced Mr Han to tack away from China. The
Communist Party wants its formula of supposed autonomy for Hong Kong—“one
country, two systems”—to apply one day to Taiwan. “Over my dead body”, Mr
Han had to declare.

韓認為台灣是地區，而非國家 (而它實際上是)
香港的示威迫使韓對一國兩制說出 over my dead body

While Ms Tsai may be seen as the better defender of Taiwanese sovereignty,
her chances of re-election may be further boosted if Ko Wen-je, the pro-China
mayor of Taipei, runs as an independent presidential candidate. Mr Gou has
not ruled out doing the same. This would split the opposition vote. In a poll
published on June 22nd, tvbs, a kmt-leaning network, found Ms Tsai ahead with
support of 37%, compared with 29% for Mr Han and 20% for Mr Ko. For now Ms
Tsai’s sun is shining. ■

柯文哲，傾中的台北市長 (the pro-China mayor of Taipei)
如果出來選，會為蔡的選情加分

郭台銘也沒有放棄脫黨參選

蔡的前景看好

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隨手翻一下而己，有人要翻完整版也歡迎

鄉村小報，參考一下就好

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