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1. 標題：History Says Don't Buy The Dip As The Tesla Bubble Deflates

2. 網站、作者：seeking alpha、Jaberwock Research

3. 網址： https://seekingalpha.com/article/4568082-history-says-do-not-buy-dip
-as-tesla-bubble-deflates

4. 內文：

Summary

Tesla shares are down 70% from their peak and I see comments on Twitter from p
eople who are mortgaging their house to buy the dip.
History has not been kind to those who buy as a price bubble deflates.
Tesla shares are not a bargain, buying the dip with the expectation that the b
ubble will re-inflate is a high-risk move.
 Tesla electric vehicles awaiting preparation for sale. Tesla EV Model 3, S an
d X are a key to a cleaner and greener environment.
jetcityimage

I am old enough to remember the dot.com bubble and its subsequent collapse. On
line trading had been introduced a few years before the bubble, and that had b
rought in a lot of new and inexperienced investors dabbling in the stock marke
t, many of them firmly believing it to be their ticket to unlimited riches.

When you first open that trading account, as many people did during the dot.co
m bubble, you must decide what to buy. Most of those new investors were cluele
ss, they knew nothing about price discovery or valuation, so they chased what
the media said was the next big thing and they mostly bought companies that we
re in the news.

Sell-side analysts fed the frenzy with ridiculous target prices for companies
that had no income, no profits, and no chance of ever becoming a real business
. But the dot.coms weren’t the only companies to be caught up in the bubble,
quality companies with profits and solid prospects also saw their shares shoot
 up to prices way above their true value. Microsoft (MSFT) gained a near monop
oly on personal computer operating systems and office utility software but did
n’t see its share price hit a new high until 17 years after the bubble burst.
 Cisco Systems (CSCO), a leading manufacturer of telecommunications equipment
still trades below its 2000 high.

This well-known chart from Wikipedia describes the typical stock price bubble.

 Chart of a typical price bubble
The phases of a stock price bubble (Wikipedia)
If this sounds familiar, it should. Another bubble, inflated by a huge influx
of retail investors is quickly deflating. This bubble has been much bigger tha
n the dot.com bubble. Back in the 1990s, few retail investors traded on margin
, and hardly anyone traded options, the fees were high and most accounts restr
icted options trading to covered calls and cash-covered puts. Margin trading,
option trading, and extremely low interest rates have magnified the effect of
the buying frenzy this time around, instead of a multi-million dollar bubble,
it has been a multi-billion dollar bubble.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has been the poster child of this bubble, nobody has ever
grabbed as much media attention as Tesla CEO, Elon Musk, and all that attentio
n created a massive burst of enthusiasm among retail investors, as the stock p
rice rose greed and fear of missing out inflated the bubble further.

But the mania phase is now over, we are on the steep downslope, the blow-off p
hase, the region of fear and capitulation.

 Tesla chart
Tesla's stock price chart (Yahoo Finance)
Tesla has fallen 70% from its peak, but retail investors have continued to “b
uy the dip”, pouring $15.4 billion into the stock this year while insiders, m
ostly CEO Elon Musk, have taken out $39 billion.

History shows that buying the dip during the collapse of a bubble is not a goo
d strategy, history tells us that Tesla will eventually return to a stock pric
e that reflects the true value of the company, and that price is significantly
 lower than its current $350 billion market cap.

Tesla has recently published its Q4 and year-end delivery numbers. A new recor
d was set for both production and deliveries, but the numbers fell well short
of expectations. Year-over-year growth was 40%, which is tremendous for an aut
omotive company, but a deeper look into those numbers paints a less optimistic
 picture for 2023.

The record Q4 deliveries were accompanied by price cuts and incentives of 8 to
 15% in China and cuts of $3,750 per car, later increased to $7,500 per car pl
us $1,000 worth of free charging for US customers. But even with those price c
uts, Tesla burned through most of its backlog in its major markets and had mor
e than 70,000 cars in inventory at the end of the quarter.

The excuse Tesla made for the higher inventories was to claim that they are mo
ving towards a more even distribution of sales throughout the quarter. I see t
hat as an indication of a declining backlog. If you have a 3-month backlog, yo
u can organize your deliveries to send cars to the furthest points first and d
eliver local cars in the final weeks of the quarter, minimizing the quarter-en
d inventory. If you don’t have a backlog, you can only send the cars to where
 you think there might be demand, if that demand fails to materialize you are
left with excess inventory.

A chart published by Tesla guru @TroyTeslike on Twitter shows a backlog of 476
,000 cars in July falling to 144,000 cars in mid-December. The chart is compil
ed from an analysis of delivery times, I think he overestimates the backlog, b
ut I am more interested in the rate at which that backlog has been falling.

 Demand chart
Estimate of Tesla's order backlog (@TroyTeslike Twitter)
The falling backlog indicates a net new order rate of only 417,000 cars for th
e second half of 2022, or 834,000 per year. (749,000 sold minus 332,000 that c
ame from the backlog). That is well below Tesla's current sales rate, a long w
ay below its factory capacity, and a clear indication that growth in 2023 will
 be difficult to achieve.

Expectations of a tax credit starting in 2023 may have put the brakes on US sa
les, we will have to wait for Q1 results to see what effect the new subsidies
have in the USA.

However, starting in 2023, subsidies were eliminated in China, Germany cut its
 subsidy by $3,000 per car, and Norway added 25% VAT to all prices above 500,0
00 Kroner ($49,500). Those subsidy moves should have brought sales forward fro
m 2023 into 2022, so we should expect to see a drop in Q1 sales in those count
ries.

These numbers suggest that Tesla's high growth period may be ending and there
is no reason to value Tesla any differently from its peers in the automotive b
usiness.

The one piece of software that might have added value to Tesla and justified i
ts valuation as a technology company rather than an automotive company is “Fu
ll Self Driving”. But it is already six years late and shows no signs of ever
 being capable of driving a car without assistance. It is the subject of sever
al consumer lawsuits, an NHTSA investigation, and an investigation by the Depa
rtment of Justice. I believe it is not an asset, it is a massive liability.

Some analysts claim an advantage for Tesla in their batteries. I would like to
 see some real evidence for that. Elon Musk setting targets for the cost and p
erformance of the 4680 battery, and those targets being picked up and repeated
 endlessly by media do not make the targets achievable. So far there has been
no real evidence to show that the 4680 battery is anything more than a scaled-
up version of the 2170 battery. Certainly, there is no reason to think that it
 will be in any way superior to GM’s Ultium, BYD’s blade battery or CATL's Q
uilin battery. I have seen no independently produced tests or data to indicate
 that one battery will be better than any of the others.

Nor is there any real evidence, in my opinion, that Tesla has any advantage in
 manufacturing.

Tesla has been able to grow its business by selling into an EV market where de
mand has exceeded supply. It has taken the market a few years to catch up with
 the hype and subsidy-driven demand, and during that time Tesla has been able
to charge luxury prices for cars that don’t have luxury components or quality
 and don't get luxury service.

But over the long term, the EV business will be the same as the rest of the au
to business, capital intensive, highly competitive, low margin manufacturing.
In fact, it will likely be even more competitive than the ICE car business bec
ause EVs are easier to make and the barriers to entry are lower, as can be see
n by the influx of prospective new entrants.

Given the likely reduced growth rate, a slowing economy, and increasing compet
ition, I believe Tesla’s share price has room to fall another 70% or more bef
ore it reaches a price that I would call a buying opportunity.

翻譯：

概括

*特斯拉的股價從最高點下跌了 70%，我在 Twitter 上看到有人抵押自己的房子來逢低買
入。
*歷史對那些隨著價格泡沫破滅而購買的人並不友善。
*特斯拉股票並不便宜，逢低買入並期望泡沫會重新膨脹是一種高風險的舉動。
 *等待銷售的特斯拉電動汽車。 Tesla EV Model 3、S 和 X 是打造更清潔、更環保環境
的關鍵。







這張來自維基百科的著名圖表描述了典型的股價泡沫。

  典型價格泡沫圖表
股價泡沫的階段（維基百科）






特斯拉股價走勢圖（雅虎財經）
特斯拉已從峰值下跌 70%，但散戶投資者繼續“逢低買入”，今年向該股投入 154 億美
元，而內部人士，主要是首席執行官埃隆楣迄筆J，已撤資 390 億美元。

歷史表明，在泡沫破滅時逢低買入並不是一個好的策略，歷史告訴我們，特斯拉最終會回
到一個反映公司真實價值的股價，而且這個價格遠低於其目前的 3500 億美元 市值。



創紀錄的第四季度交付伴隨著中國的降價和 8% 至 15% 的激勵措施，每輛車削減 3,750
美元，後來增加到每輛車 7,500 美元，外加美國客戶價值 1,000 美元的免費充電。 但
即使降價，特斯拉還是燒掉了其主要市場的大部分積壓訂單，到本季度末仍有超過 70,00
0 輛汽車的庫存。

特斯拉為增加庫存找的藉口是聲稱他們正朝著整個季度的銷售分佈更均勻的方向發展。


需求圖
特斯拉訂單積壓預估（@TroyTeslike 推特）


對 2023 年開始的稅收抵免的預期可能會抑制美國的銷售，我們將不得不等待第一季度的
結果，看看新補貼對美國有什麼影響。



這些數字表明，特斯拉的高增長期可能即將結束，沒有理由對特斯拉的估值與汽車行業的
同行有任何不同。





在我看來，也沒有任何真實證據表明特斯拉在製造方面有任何優勢。





考慮到增長率可能下降、經濟放緩和競爭加劇，我認為特斯拉的股價在達到我稱之為買入
機會的價格之前還有下跌 70% 或更多的空間。

心得：

Seeking alpha 很多優質的分析文章、也有不少很多先前就看空Tesla 的優質分析。

總歸來說公司沒有問題、但就是市值有問題，而且在外流通股數似乎一直一點一滴的增加
，原始股東權益一直在被稀釋。

應該這兩年內會一波一波跌到市值在1500e美以下。

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