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原文標題：

Biden’s budget proposal is ‘the most reckless fiscal policy in the last
half-century’: economist
拜登的預算提案是“近半個世紀以來最魯莽的財政政策”：經濟學家

原文連結：

https://reurl.cc/g83xgN

發布時間：

Sat, April 10, 2021, 8:13 PM

原文內容：

President Joe Biden’s first 100 days in office have been dominated by
government spending proposals.

On Friday, Biden unveiled his $1.5 trillion “skinny budget” – a precursor
to the full annual budget. It comes on top of his $1.9 trillion COVID-relief
package and his $2.3 trillion infrastructure proposal.

Tyler Goodspeed, former acting chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers
under former President Trump, told Yahoo Finance Live all that spending is
not prudent at a time when the U.S. budget deficit continues to widen to
unprecedented levels.

“I’m an economic historian, and I think we are looking right now at the
most reckless fiscal policy in the last half century,” said Goodspeed, the
Kleinheinz Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University.

Biden’s first budget proposal as commander-in-chief is largely a reflection
of his key agenda items. It devotes a significant portion of funding to
education, climate change, public health research, civil rights, and battling
the opioid crisis.

Specifically, it includes $103 billion for the Education Department, a 41%
increase over the 2021 enacted level, an increase of $14 billion to fight
climate change, $10.7 billion to combat the opioid crisis, and $8.7 billion
for the CDC to prepare for future public health crises.

“With this so-called skinny proposal, we’re seeing a proposed increase in
non-defense discretionary spending of 16%, it’s highest level as a share of
the economy since 1965,” Goodspeed said. “And Democratic leadership in
Congress has been cleared to pass another reconciliation bill this year, so I
think that we are in unprecedented territory when it comes to fiscal policy.”

Under Biden's proposed budget, defense programs would grow by 1.7%, less than
many Republicans wanted, but more than some Democrats who were calling for
cuts to military spending. Goodspeed said now is not the time to skimp on
defense spending — especially with China as a growing threat.

“The People’s Republic of China has become a global superpower with
capacities for surveillance and technological disruption that their Soviet
predecessors would have marveled at,” he said. “In the context of that
security threat, we ought to be thinking very, very carefully about whether
or not the Department of Defense is adequately funded.”

Goodspeed said he would advise Biden to focus federal spending on job
creation because “ there is not going to be a recovery in the U.S. economy
until there’s a recovery in the U.S. labor market.”

He cautioned Biden against trying to roll back a signature Trump achievement
— the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which among other things, lowered the
corporate tax rate for businesses.

“Make sure that the incentives are in place for employers to continue
hiring, and make sure that we are not imposing unduly high implicit marginal
tax rates on the return to work” he said.

Biden is expected to release a more detailed budget proposal later this
spring, but this initial blueprint is the first step in the federal budgeting
process.

機翻如下：

經濟學家：拜登的預算提案是 "過去半個世紀以來最魯莽的財政政策

美國總統喬-拜登上任的前100天，主要是提出政府支出建議。

週五，拜登公佈了他的1.5萬億美元 "瘦身預算"--這是全年度預算的前奏。這是在他的
1.9萬億美元的COVID減免方案和2.3萬億美元的基礎設施提案之外的。



拜登作為總司令的第一份預算提案主要反映了他的關鍵議程項目。它將很大一部分資金用
於教育、氣候變化、公共衛生研究、民權和對抗阿片類藥物危機。









古斯比說，他將建議拜登把聯邦支出的重點放在創造就業上，因為 "在美國勞動力市場復
蘇之前，美國經濟不會有復蘇"。

他告誡拜登不要試圖推翻川普的標誌性成果--2017年減稅和就業法案，其中包括降低企業
的企業稅率。

他說："確保激勵措施到位，讓雇主繼續招聘，並確保我們沒有對重返工作崗位的人施加
過高的隱性邊際稅率"。

拜登預計將在今年春天晚些時候發佈更詳細的預算提案，但這份初步藍圖是聯邦預算編制
過程中的第一步。



心得/評論：


這算是反映出對於民主黨政府的支出計畫的一些疑慮。

另外對於民主黨打算取消川普減稅的一些呼籲。



我個人的評價是，民主黨看見美國的一些危機，

但是似乎並沒有很徹底的將這些危機的急迫性和先後次序做一個區分，

然後一股腦兒的編了一個預算打算解決所有問題。

令人懷疑他們是否缺乏戰略性的思考。



當然這個是當世結果論的，

當世看起來結果是好的，就是好的。

就像柯林頓中國紅利和供應鏈革命的紅利，

當時的當世給了他一個很會搞經濟的評價。

但是放縱中國藉機崛起，自由世界承擔的代價就完全是後世的事了。



拉回到拜登，

民主黨的選擇其實也沒有想像中多，

刺激就業恢復，看起來沒有錯，
改善基礎建設，看起來沒有錯，
促進產業換代，看起來沒有錯，
源頭改善移民，看起來沒有錯，
減少軍事開支，看起來沒有錯，
守護自由世界，看起來沒有錯。

同時推進所有目標.......只能說美國是一個很大很強的國家。

--

「行情總是在絕望中誕生，
  在半信半疑中成長，     <--美國
  在憧憬中成熟，
  在充滿希望中毀滅。」   <--中國

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