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標題：Golden Era for Shipping Seen Ahead as Geopolitics Boosts Pricing
連結：https://reurl.cc/mMNb7A
來源：Bloomberg 彭博社
記者：By Alex Longley and Aine Quinn

內容：
If there was a universal theme at the parties, presentations and meetings in t
he world’s shipping capital Athens this week, it’s that bad times are good f
or business.

That’s to say that geopolitical conflicts and doubts about the supply of new
ships mean shipowners are bracing for a prolonged earnings boom.

Andy Dacy, managing director and group head of the global transportation group
at JPMorgan Asset Management — whose multi-billion dollar porftolio includes
extensive investments in the maritime industry, encapsulated it best.

“Thinking about shipping over the next 10-15 years, one could argue despite t
he fact that we have these challenges that we are moving into a golden era alb
eit underpinned by difficult dark things,” he said at a forum organized by Ca
pital Link during the Posidonia shipping week.

The cost of hiring ships has been about a third higher than the average for th
e last ten years so far in 2024, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd.,
a unit of the world’s largest shipbroker, propelled in part by ships sailing
thousands of miles extra to avoid attacks in the Red Sea. Similiarly, Russia
’s invasion of Ukraine has led to trade dislocations that are forcing oil tan
kers on far longer voyages than would otherwise be the case.

Speaking at events organized as part of the Posidonia conference in Athens, so
me executives said they were eying a potentially protracted era of higher earn
ings, based in part on a bet that the global geopolitical environment will rem
ain more dangerous for longer, and a supply of new ships that remains relative
ly low.

In every private conversation, it was the recurring theme. Some said the troub
led geopolitical times are good for business now, while others said they don’
t see an end in sight to current disruptions.

In addition to rising geopolitical risk, owners have another reason to be bull
ish.

Although there has been some ordering of new ships as earnings soar — causing
some nerves about whether a boom can truly be sustained —  by historical sta
ndards, the pace of buying has been relatively subdued given strong freight ma
rkets.

That’s in large part because shipowners aren’t sure what the fuel that will
replace traditional oil propulsion will be, meaning that vessel orders haven’
t accumulated in the same way as during shipping’s last great boom period in
2008.

“We have not really seen any alternative fuel that is either available, or ve
ry promising for the future,” said Ioannis Alafouzos, chairman of Okeanis Eco
Tankers Corp. “We are quite pessimistic about alternative fuels in fact. Fra
nkly speaking, we do not know where we are going, so for the time being we are
sticking with conventional engines.”

Some argue that rates are currently so good, that shipping’s efforts to decar
bonize are also likely to slow. That’s because such high earnings offer littl
e incentive to put ships in dockyards and carry out work that would make them
ready to burn cleaner fuels, according to DNV Maritime.

Even this week, as shipowners and brokers discussed the outlook for the market
on the Mediterranean coastline, Houthi rebels continued to fire salvos of mis
siles at vessels in the Red Sea.

One Greek owner said he expects that the impact of the attacks on shipping in
the region could be felt even more acutely in the second half of the year for
container and bulk commodity ships as those fleets get even more stretched out
.

That leaves owners bracing for a world that is more volatile for longer.

“At what point do black swans become not black swans?” Hing Chao, executive
chairman of Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdings, which owns a fleet of oil t
ankers and commodity carriers, said at the Capital Link Forum. “We’re reachi
ng that point in the world unfortunately. As far as shipping is concerned I th
ink in the short-to-medium any kind of disruption would be beneficial to shipp
ing, but medium-to-long term it’s bad for everybody.”

Chat GPT翻譯：
如果說本週在世界航運之都雅典舉行的派對、演講和會議上有一個普遍主題，那就是壞時
期對生意有利。

也就是說，地緣政治衝突和對新船供應的疑慮意味著船東們正在為一個持續的盈利繁榮期
做準備。






在每一次私人對話中，這都是反覆出現的主題。一些人說當前的地緣政治動盪對生意有利
，而另一些人則認為目前的中斷沒有結束的跡象。



這主要是因為船東們不確定將替代傳統石油推進的新燃料是什麼，這意味著船舶訂單不像
2008年航運業上一次大繁榮時那樣積累。







這讓船東們為一個更長期的波動世界做好準備。

“黑天鵝事件什麼時候不再是黑天鵝事件？” Wah Kwong Maritime Transport Holdin



心得：
大摩前陣子發新聞不是看衰航運嗎？小摩怎麼又看好了？
看起來目前促使運價上漲的地緣政治問題
追根究底背後都有美國在搞事
1.俄烏戰爭
2.以巴衝突
3.中美貿易戰
美國玩爭霸，航運水手在旁邊喝湯
謝謝美國爸爸請客！
拜登我的超人！
https://i.imgur.com/UFJUWDN.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/POzYP3J.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/Y8VN8Rs.jpeg
https://i.imgur.com/kQpAs4a.jpeg

-----
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※ 作者: bkprt730 2024-06-08 14:09:44
※ 文章代碼(AID): #1cO_MjQj (Stock)
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