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這網站好像不能算新聞 我分類就用閒聊了

https://goo.gl/Y6Mziq

Google still doesn’t want to sell smartphones: Here’s why
2017年11月03日 作者 Bogdan Petrovan

For a company that now touts the virtues of closely-integrated AI, software, and
 hardware, Google’s mobile platform started out pretty unintegrated.
作為一個現今整合軟體硬體和AI的師爺級公司 谷歌的手機平台有些不整合

Beginning with the first Android phone, the 2008 T-Mobile G1, Google was happy t
o give manufacturers (and even carriers) ample control over user experience. In
hindsight it seems a bit suicidal, but it worked. A decade later, Android is eve
rywhere. 在2008年第一隻安卓手機問世 當時的谷歌很樂意讓製造商和電信商對用戶體驗有
完整的控制 現在回顧這看似自殺的行為確實奏效了 十年後 到處都是安卓

But the times, they are a’changin’. Google’s strategy of spreading Android fa
r and wide is approaching its limits. More importantly, the company is no longer
 mobile-first; it’s now an AI-first company. And good AI — the kind that’s in
distinguishable from magic — requires tight integration with hardware, software
, and services. That’s why Google is now making its own line of devices it cont
rols top to bottom.
但現在他們在改變 推廣安卓的策略接近極限了 更重要的 現在不再是手機優先而是AI優先
這需要軟硬體和伺服器緊密的整合 這也是為何谷歌開始自己做手機

Enter the蠭ixel 2 and Pixel 2 XL, two amazing phones Google doesn’t actually w
ant to sell in meaningfully large numbers.
Pixel 2和Pixel 2 XL 兩隻驚人的手機谷歌其實都不想賣太多

Google cannot be this bad at selling phones 谷歌不應該在賣手機上表現的這麼糟糕

Google is arguably the biggest and most influential company in the world. It emp
loys tens of thousands of brilliant people who work on solving insanely complica
ted problems. Selling smartphones is not insanely complicated, so why is Google
so bad at it?
谷歌是全球最大最有影響力的公司 有著成千上萬的優秀員工解決極為複雜的問題 但相較之
下賣手機並不是件太複雜的事 那為何谷歌在此表現得如此糟糕呢

Even by the most optimistic guesses, Google hasn’t sold enough original Pixels
to move the needle. According to comScore data from August, just 0.7 percent of
US smartphone subscribers use a Pixel. The graphic below speaks volumes. 就算樂
觀的假設谷歌賣的Pixel還不夠多到足以有顯著的影響 根據comScore的資料 只有0.7%的美
國智慧型手機用戶使用Pixel
https://i.imgur.com/3qXiVgA.jpg

You could say that 0.7 percent (or a few million units) is still respectable for
 a device’s first year on the market, but this is Google, not OnePlus. And it l
ooks like the second year on the market won’t be much different, either.
你可能會說第一年有0.7%不錯了 但這是谷歌不是一加 而且看來第二年也不會有太多改變

Sales of the Pixel 2 and Pixel 2 XL are held back by the same issues that hamper
ed the first generation of “Made by Google” smartphones:
Pixel2和Pixel2XL都被相同的問題所阻礙


They are expensive, especially considering that Google doesn’t need a big profi
t margin to sustain itself like most Android OEMs. Also, the Pixels’ pricing ru
ns against Google’s mission statement to bring Android to billions of new users
 in developing countries, at least philosophically.
太貴了 尤其考量到谷歌不需要像其他OEM廠商一樣獲得巨大的獲利來支撐自己 這也與谷歌
把安卓帶給上億個開發中國家的使用者的目的不符

Domestic availability is limited. Looking at the Google Store, many versions are
 out of stock or shipping with delays of 3-5 weeks. Availability may be better t
han last year, but that’s a very low bar. Additionally, the Pixel are still onl
y available at Verizon. Surely, Google had the clout to make deals with more car
riers if it wanted to?
國內很難買到 Google Store要麼缺貨要麼要等三到五週 是比去年好一些了 但還是很糟 而
且只有與Verizon合作 谷歌想要的話一定可以與更多電信商合作的

International availability is very limited. This is a perennial problem with Goo
gle products and services. The company seems to think most markets are simply no
t worth the hassle. 國際上也很難購買 這是谷歌產品和服務多年來的問題 谷歌看來似乎
覺得大多數的市場不值得他們麻煩

Their hardware barely stands out. There’s no headphone jack (don’t even bring
up microSD). There’s no striking hardware feature and the design of the Pixel 2
 is dated. Is this the best product Google could come up with?
硬體沒有突出的特色 沒有耳機孔 沒有SD卡槽 這是谷歌能做出來最棒的產品嗎

All of these issues are the result of calculated decisions by Google. You could
come up with reasonable explanations for each of them, but it’s hard to believe
 that Google couldn’t do a better job selling phones.
這些都是谷歌精打細算的決定 每個問題都能有合理的答案 但真的很難相信谷歌在賣手機這
件事上不能做得更好

This is no hobby 這不是個消遣

If we accept that Google is not grossly incompetent at selling smartphones, the
only reasonable explanation remaining is that Google doesn’t want to sell smart
phones in high volumes. But why?
如果我們接受谷歌並非沒有能力賣手機 唯一合理的解釋是谷歌不想賣太多手機 為什麼呢

Is hardware just a “hobby” for Google? That’s hard to believe. Both Google CE
O Sundar Pichai and head of hardware Rick Osterloh have stated the company is se
rious about hardware, which they hope to turn into a meaningful revenue source w
ithin five years. Google made close to $90 billion in revenue in 2016, so when w
e say meaningful we’re talking about tens of millions of units sold.


Some embarrassing failures aside, Google has already taken some steps that sugge
st it actually is serious about hardware. It set up a unified hardware operation
 (under Osterloh, former head of Motorola); it acquired a large part of HTC’s e
ngineering team; and it poured money into TV ads and other marketing activities.
 Its hardware-related message in the past two years has been remarkably consiste
nt, which is a bit unusual for a company known for flip-flopping in other areas.
撇除一些尷尬的失敗 谷歌已經採取一些行動表明他們在硬體上是玩真的 建立硬體部門 買
來許多宏達電的工程師 花錢買廣告
 兩年來這些跟硬體有關的明顯訊息並不像是在其他領域當兒戲

With friends like these… 有著這些夥伴

Why is Google pouring money into smartphones, but deliberately holding back when
 it comes to selling them? For a clue, we can take a look at a recent survey of
global market share by IDC.
為何谷歌花錢在手機上 但賣手機時卻有些保守呢 從IDC的全球市占調查中能探出端倪
https://i.imgur.com/OeQiOeM.jpg


Out of the top five smartphone sellers right now, Google has no one on which to
rely for achievingts vision of “AI + software + hardware.” Leaving out Appl
e for obvious reasons, we’re left with:
前五個廠商中沒有一個能夠和谷歌合作達成"AI+軟體+硬體"的目標 先撇除蘋果 來看看剩下
那些公司

Samsung – A hugely resourceful and rich company. It has ample control over the
way people experience Android and seems to desire ridding itself of Google’s co
ntrol.
三星—一個有錢有資源的公司 它對使用者體驗有著完全的控制 而且渴望甩開谷歌的控制

Huawei – Samsung 2.0 in the making.
華為— 正在成長的三星2.0

Oppo and Vivo – They’re owned by the same corporation (BBK Electronics) and fo
cused on China and developing markets; these two players care about high volumes
 only. That means a focus on iPhone-like designs and increasingly extreme beauti
fication modes, rather than AI and tight integration with Google.
Oppo和Vivo 都是步步高集團的子公司且專注於中國跟開發中國家 這兩位都只重視銷售量
著重於類似iPhone的外觀以及日益極端的美化模式而不是AI或是和谷歌緊密合作

Together, Samsung, Huawei, and BBK account for almost half of all Android smartp
hones sold right now. Google can’t count on any of them in the long term.
三星華為和步步高持有近半數的安卓市場
谷歌無法與他們長期合作

LG, Xiaomi, and a few others have a shot at entering top five, but when you lose
 money quarter after quarter, you’re in no position to shape the ecosystem. Eve
ryone else is too small to count.
樂金 小米以及其他人有機會擠進前五 但當一季又一季的虧損 便無法塑造生態系
其他公司都太弱小 不可靠

Now is not the moment 現在還不是時候

Put yourself in Sundar Pichai’s shoes for a moment. You know that smartphones h
ave reached a plateau and all the big improvements will come from AI goingforwa
rd. You need to find ways to put AI at the heart of every smartphone. Here’s th
e problem: you can’t trust your most successful partners, and the small ones ar
e barely making ends meet.
試著以執行長的角度想想 你知道手機市場正接近一個高原 而AI將會是向前的一大步
你需要想辦法把AI放入每個手機的核心 問題來了：你無法相信最成功的夥伴們 而小伙伴們
都入不敷出

So, what do you do? You start making your own smartphones and try not to destroy
 everything that you’ve built so far.
那你該做什麼 你開始自己做手機並試著不要摧毀你至今的成果

Google created its own smartphone lineup to further its greater agenda. The Pixe
l line pushes less cooperative OEMs, and inspires friendly ones, to follow its p
ath by shaping the public perception of what Android smartphones should be. If a
ll else fails, Google could even go nuclear and tackle Apple and Samsung head-on
.
谷歌創造自己的生產線 Pixel推開了合作意願低落的OEM商並與友善的廠商合作 意圖讓大眾
知道安卓手機該有的樣子 如果失敗了 至少谷歌也給蘋果和三星帶來很大的壓力

Google definitely needs to be a competitive smartphone maker, but it doesn’t ne
ed (or want) to be a competitive smartphone seller —at least not for now.?
谷歌現階段需要成為有競爭力的製造者但不是有競爭力銷售者

Google doesn’t want to anger or alienate Samsung even more. It happened before
with the Motorola acquisition. In 2014, Google was reportedly so “dismayed” wi
th Samsung’s efforts to alter the Android experience, that the two companies ha
d to sit down for peace talks. Soon after, Google offloaded Motorola to Lenovo.
Not much has changed since then. Samsung has lost some market share, but it’s s
till the most influential Android phone maker out there. Its homegrown Tizen OS
is ready and waiting.
谷歌不想再惹毛三星(這段看不太懂QQ)

Google also doesn’t want to weaken the platform it worked so hard to create and
 maintain. With so many Android OEMs already struggling to make money, the arriv
al of a strong new player could precipitate a wave of exits and consolidation. T
his could give Samsung and Huawei a stronger bargaining position and Apple even
more market share.
谷歌也不想弱化其努力創造與維持的平台
當許多OEM已經很掙扎的賺錢 多一個強壯的選手可能會帶來市場大震動 這會讓三星和華為
有更大的話語權 也會使蘋果有更多市占

Selling smartphones is a means, not an end. Google won’t turn itself into a hig
h-volume smartphone maker if it can be avoided. It’s a complicated, labor-inten
sive, and highly competitive industry that’s spiraling into萠ommoditization. W
hat Google really wants is to keep doing what’s worked so well until now: contr
ol the platform and let others worry about supply chains.
賣手機是手段而不是目的 谷歌盡量避免自己成為大製造商 這是個複雜的產業 谷歌真正想
要的是維持現況： 控制平台 讓其他打工仔去擔心供應鏈

https://i.imgur.com/qvPXUQF.jpg

Five years from now 五年後

Speak softly and carry a big stick, says the old adage. The Pixel line is the st
ick that Google will use when all else fails, at the risk of damaging a platform
 that was built over a decade of soft speaking.
俗話說拿著棒子輕聲細語(中文有對應的諺語嗎) Pixel是個一切都失敗了的時候的棒子 有
可能傷害谷歌十幾年來打造的平台

The beauty of the stick is you don’t need to use it, you just need to be seen c
arrying it around. Google doesn’t need to sell a bunch of Pixels in order to ma
ke a point. But that doesn’t mean it won’t, if it comes down to it.
棒子的美妙之處在於不需要使用他 只需要拿著到處晃就好了 谷歌不需要賣很多Pixel 但不
代表當情況變糟時他沒有能力這麼做

The worst-case scenario for Google is to become a “real” smartphone maker who
competes in earnest not only with Apple, but also with Samsung, Huawei, and all
the other Android OEMs. If that happens, the next five years could be very turbu
lent in the Android world. A conflict with Samsung would be inevitable, as the K
orean giant would fight back against Google’s encroachment on its hardware turf
. The entire ecosystem could become less diverse, as small players get bought ou
t or simply shut down. Competitors like Amazon or Microsoft could try to swoop b
ack in and offer a tempting alternative to Google’s mobile and AI platforms.
最糟的劇本是谷歌成為真正的手機製造商 需要與蘋果三星華為以及其他OEM競爭 如果發生
了 未來五年安卓世界將會波濤洶湧
必然會與三星有激烈的競爭 韓國巨人也會以谷歌侵犯他的硬體專利做出反擊 整個生態系的
多樣性將會下降 小公司會被收購會直接裁撤 其他競爭者如亞馬遜和微軟將會乘虛而入

In the best-case scenario, the current model is perpetuated. That means Google m
anages to convince OEMs to follow its lead and work diligently to add Google-pow
ered AI to all of their products. If that happens, I doubt Pixel phones will eve
n be a thing five years from now. At best, they’ll be a boutique brand kept ali
ve just to remind OEMs that Google is always capable of taking things into its o
wn hands.


Whether Google becomes a mass-market smartphone maker or not, one thing is clear
 – Google is dead serious about becoming the preeminent AI company, even if tha
t means undermining Android in the process.
不論谷歌是否成為主流廠商 有一件事十分明確 谷歌非常像成為超群的AI公司 即使這代表
著在過程中毀了安卓

呼~第一次翻譯這麼長的文章 這大概是平常英文閱讀測驗的好幾倍的量
如有錯誤歡迎指正!

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