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http://bit.ly/1jFuv4G

by Ray Subers


以下是Ray Subers在針對六大片場的態勢作逐家分析之前，第一大段的概要




3.當然，第一個達到年營收十億的片廠，必不代表可以繼續在年終成為霸主。這十年來
，率先十億與年終市佔率保持領先只有三次發生過，他們分別是2004的索尼、2007與
2011的派拉蒙

接下來是Ray Subers對好萊塢六大片場的逐家分析

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$541 million(on May 13, 2014)
$571.7 million(on May 25, 2014)

Captain America: The Winter Soldier ($245 million), Frozen ($137.4 million).

．美國隊長2(美國票房破2.5億)
．冰雪奇緣(美國票房破四億，有1.37億來自今年)

Million Dollar Arm (May 16), Maleficent (May 30), Planes: Fire and Rescue
(July 18), Guardians of the Galaxy (Aug. 1)

．少年Pi主角主演棒球劇情片「百萬金臂」
．裘莉主演奇幻冒險片「黑魔女：沈睡詛咒」
．動畫喜劇續集「飛機總動員2」
．漫威製作科幻動作片「星際異攻隊」

So far this year, Disney is the highest-grossing studio with $541 million.
That's thanks in large part to Captain America, which accounts for over 45
percent of that revenue.

迪士尼在五月中旬此文截稿時，是當時美國收入最高的片廠，而這最大的功臣就是美國
隊長－其續集佔了迪士尼現階段電影票房收入的45%。

Disney's Summer schedule is lighter than usual, though. Million Dollar Arm
will do modest business—maybe $50 million or so. Maleficent is the type of
big-budget fantasy that can deliver huge numbers, though the marketing hasn't
really connected. A gross on par with Snow White and the Huntsman ($155.3
million) is probably the best-case scenario. In July, Planes: Fire and Rescue
could take advantage of a dearth of family fare and earn close to $100
million.



If all of that works out, it would put Disney around $850 million without
Guardians of the Galaxy, which opens on August 1. That should do well enough
to push the studio over the $1 billion mark by the end of August.




-----------------------------

$524 million(on May 13, 2014)
$577 million(on May 25, 2014)

The Amazing Spider-Man 2 ($145.2 million), American Hustle($82.6 million),
The Monuments Men ($78 million), Heaven is for Real ($75.7 million).

．蜘蛛人驚奇再起2(目前美國票房1.8億)
．蠻天大布局(美國票房1.5億，有55%戲院收入來自今年)
．大卡司戰爭動作片「大尋寶家」(美國票房7800萬)
．基督主題劇情片「看見天堂」(美國票房破8千萬)

22 Jump Street (June 13), Think Like a Man Too (June 20),Deliver Us From Evil
(July 25), Sex Tape (July 25)

．校園臥底喜劇「龍虎少年隊2」
．黑人導向浪漫喜劇「男人行不行2」
．艾瑞克班納主演犯罪驚悚片「惡魔刑事錄」
．卡麥容迪亞主演限制級性導向喜劇「愛愛上雲端」

Sony has had a good year so far, though that's due mostly to having eight
nationwide releases (more than any other studio). Their top title, The Amazing
Spider-Man 2, is poised to be the lowest-grossing Spider-Man yet, though it is
going to earn at least another $60 million before the end of its run. Faith-
based hit Heaven is for Real could also add another $30 million or so.



Looking ahead, comedy sequels 22 Jump Street and Think Like a Man Too should
earn at least $200 million (their predecessors add up to $230 million). With
a very memorable trailer, Deliver Us From Evil could surprise in early July.
Cameron Diaz and Jason Segel are an appealing pair, though Sex Tape is a big
question mark right now. If one or more of these titles overperforms, Sony
should be at $1 billion by the end of Summer.




--------------------------------

$516 million(on May 13, 2014)
$681.5 million(on May 25, 2014)

The LEGO Movie ($253.7 million), 300: Rise of An Empire ($106.2 million).

樂高玩電影、三百壯士2(兩者均在美國破億，其中前者甚至賣破2.5億)

Godzilla (May 16), Blended (May 23), Edge of Tomorrow(June 6), Jersey Boys
(June 20), Tammy (July 2), Jupiter Ascending (July 18)

．災難動作片「哥吉拉」
．亞當山德勒與茱兒巴莉摩主演浪漫喜劇「當我們混在一起」
．湯姆克魯斯主演科幻動作片「明日邊界」
．克林伊斯威特音樂傳記片「紐澤西男孩」
．梅莉莎麥卡西主演公路喜劇「譚美」
．蜜拉庫妮絲主演科幻動作片「朱比特崛起」

2014 has been the year of The LEGO Movie for Warner Bros.—the animated hit
accounts for nearly half of its earnings so far. 300: Rise of an Empire also
did fine business, though it's wrapping up with around half as much as its
predecessor. WB also has two major flops in Transcendence and Winter's Tale.



Their Summer is packed with new releases—between now and the end of July,
they've got six titles coming out.Godzilla is the safest bet, and all signs
point to it delivering around $200 million. The rest of the lineup is tougher
to predict.



Blended may be one of those rare Adam Sandler movies to fall short of $100
million; still, it should at least come close to Jack & Jill ($74.2 million).
The last original Tom Cruise movie to earn over $100 million was 2005's War
of the Worlds, and Edge of Tomorrow probably won't buck that trend. It's hard
to imagine Jersey Boys breaking out, and Tammy lacks the strong hook of
recent Melissa McCarthy's 2013 hits Identity Thief and The Heat. Jupiter
Ascending is a wild card, though as of now it looks more like John Carter
($73.1 million) than The Matrix ($171.5 million).



Still, if all of those perform in line with modest expectations, Warner Bros.
should be passing $1 billion by the end of July.

不過，上述的電影假如能在賣座走勢能有穩定的水平，華納應該還是能在七月底跨過十億
的關卡。


--------------------------------

$438 million(on May 13, 2014)
$502.9 million(on May 25, 2014)

Ride Along ($134.2 million), Lone Survivor ($124.9 million), Non-Stop ($91.1
million)

．黑人搭檔喜劇「一路前行」(美國票房破億)

A Million Ways to Die in the West (May 30th), The Purge: Anarchy (July 18),
Get On Up (August 1)

．熊麻吉導演自導自演西部喜劇「百萬種硬的方式」
．屠殺驚悚片續集「國定殺戮日2」
．傳奇歌星詹姆斯布朗傳記電影「激樂人心」

Universal has had a very good year at the domestic box office. Including
recent hit Neighbors, the studio has had four original, modestly-budgeted
movies open in first place. By the end of May, Universal should be near $550
million.



Unfortunately, the remainder of their Summer is weak; Universal was supposed
to have Fast & Furious 7 in July, but that had to be moved to next April
after star Paul Walker's unexpected passing. A Million Ways to Die in the
West could be a hit, but it won't come close to Ted levels. The Purge:
Anarchy may wind up on par with the first Purge ($64.5 million), though
that's far from a guarantee. The studio has a handful of movies opening in
August—Get on Up looks particularly strong—though it's unlikely it gets
anywhere near $1 billion before the end of September.




--------------------------------

$401 million(on May 13, 2014)
$517.2 million(on May 25, 2014)

Rio 2 ($113.1 million), Mr. Peabody & Sherman ($108.9 million), The Other
Woman ($62.1 million), Son of God ($59.7 million)

．里約大冒險2與「皮巴迪先生與薛曼的時空冒險」兩部破億動畫喜劇
．浪漫喜劇「婦仇者聯盟」(美國票房破8千萬，卡麥容迪亞真人演出電影第十高)
．耶蘇傳記片「上帝之子」(美國票房近6千萬，基督相關電影第六高)

X-Men: Days of Future Past (May 23), The Fault in our Stars (June 6), How to
Train Your Dragon 2 (June 13), Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (July 11)

．大卡司科幻動作續集「X戰警：未來昔日」
．分歧者女主角新作「生命中的美好缺憾」
．動畫冒險續集「馴龍高手2」
．科幻災難續集「猩球崛起2」

20th Century Fox has had a fine year so far: Rio 2 and Mr. Peabody & Sherman
both wound up with over $100 million, while The Other Woman is exceeding most
expectations.

福斯今年的起步也算不錯，里約大冒險2與「皮巴迪先生」都有在美國破億，婦仇者聯盟
的成績也已經超乎業界的預期。

More importantly, the studio has the strongest Summer 2014 lineup. With
X-Men: Days of Future Past, The Fault in our Stars and How to Train Your
Dragon 2, they could dominate every weekend between Memorial Day and the end
of June. By early July, those three titles should add up to at least $500
million—around $450 million split between X-Men and Dragon, plus $50 million
for Fault—which would put Fox close to $1 billion. Add in Dawn of the Planet
of the Apes, and Fox should have no problem reaching that mark as early as
mid-July.




--------------------------------

$321 million(on May 25, 2014)

Noah ($99.9 million), The Wolf of Wall Street ($75.5 million)

．挪亞方舟(美國票房破億，羅素克洛生涯第七高票房)
．華爾街之狼(美國票房破億，有60%票房收入來自今年)

Transformers: Age of Extinction (June 27), Hercules (July 25), Teenage Mutant
Ninja Turtles (August 8)

．經典科幻動作必賣系列「變形金剛4：絕跡重生」
．巨石強森古裝動作片「海克力士」
．麥克貝監製超級英雄冒險喜劇「忍者龜：變種世代」

Paramount has had a slow year so far. Noah's $100 million is a bit below
expectations, while Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit and Paranormal Activity: The
Marked Ones underperformed in January.



Paramount doesn't enter the Summer fray until late June, though it goes
without saying that Transformers: Age of Extinction is going to be huge.
Their other releases, Hercules and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles, are harder
to predict. Still, assuming Transformers reaches $300 million and the other
two combine for $250 million—both optimistic predictions—Paramount will
still be short of $1 billion going in to the Fall.




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心得：派拉蒙好慘，假如不要把夢工廠動畫切割，公司的氣勢不知道會不會好一點？
另外，福斯低潮了不少年，如今終於有機會來個徹底的鹹魚翻身？

文章的最後順便附上Ray Subers預測今年暑假檔美國十大賣座電影，
有空的話我也會對這篇文章作更詳細的翻譯
http://bit.ly/1kaLQrY

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2
2. X-Men: Days of Future Past
3. Transformers: Age of Extinction
4. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
5. Godzilla
6. The Amazing Spider-Man 2
7. Guardians of the Galaxy
8. Maleficent
9. Neighbors
10.22 Jump Street

順道一提，Ray Subers預測今年暑假美國破兩億的電影會有6部

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