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黃金新冠策略備受讚譽的台灣正面臨大量死亡的可能性
Taiwan, hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential for
 lots of deaths’

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/
taiwans-pandemic-may-track-underwhelming-finish/
(請自行連結)

英國每日電訊報 (The Telegraph) 亞洲特派員 Nicola Smith - 2022年5月6 Taiwan,
hailed for its gold standard Covid strategy, now faces ‘potential for lots of
 deaths’
以黃金標準 新冠 策略而備受讚譽的台灣，現在面臨「大量死亡的可能性」

As the ‘zero Covid’ stalwart flinches at China's strict Omicron lockdowns,
has it done enough to follow Singapore and South Korea's
example?
在「清零」堅定支持者對中國嚴格的 Omicron 封城策略望而卻步
的同時，台灣的作為是否已足以新加坡和韓國為榜樣？

Taiwan faces the daunting prospect of a vertical trajectory of infections that
 could trigger unprecedented death rates Credit: ANN WANG /REUTERS
圖片 - 台灣面臨著令人生畏的垂直感染預期，這可能引發前所未有
的死亡率 - ANN WANG /路透社

Within a few short weeks, Taiwan has been catapulted from a few hundred
Covid-19 cases a day to tens of thousands. The island now faces the daunting
prospect of a vertical trajectory of infections that could trigger
unprecedented
death rates by this summer.
在短短幾週內，台灣已從每天數百例 Covid-19 病例猛增至數萬例。
該島現在面臨著垂直感染預期的可怕前景，這可能會在今年夏天引
發前所未有的死亡率。

Anxious city dwellers are trying to carry on as normal, but restaurants, gyms
and schools are emptying out as people try to adjust to a dramatic shift from
the first two years of the pandemic, when the country was seen as one of the
world's few safe havens.


Taiwan successfully fought back every new outbreak and curbed infections
and deaths with a “zero Covid” strategy that, like neighbouring China,
relied on strict border controls and lengthy quarantine on arrival.
與鄰國中國一樣，台灣依靠嚴格的邊境控制和入境的長期檢疫，
透過「清零」策略成功對抗了每一次的新疫情並遏制了感染和死亡。

But now in the face of unprecedented surges driven by the highly contagious
omicron variant, democratic Taiwan is diverging from authoritarian China.
但現在面對高度傳染性的 Omicron 變異株推升的前所未有激增，民
主台灣正在與專制中國背道而馳。

While Beijing is doubling down on its stringent “zero Covid” approach,
Taiwan is shifting away from a suppression strategy. This week, Taipei also
condemned China’s
stringent lockdowns as “cruel” – jolting video from the modern city of
Shanghai has revealed hungry residents appealing for food, and citizens in
Hebei province being bolted into their homes.


Experts predict Taiwan could face a rocky exit from the pandemic Credit:
ANN WANG /REUTERS
專家預測台灣可能面臨艱困的大流行病脫離過程 - 來源：
ANN WANG /REUTERS

Rather than emulating China, Taiwan has its sights on South Korea and
Singapore – which have successfully reduced restrictions while keeping
death rates low. But with little natural immunity and suboptimal vaccination
rates among the vulnerable, experts predict Taiwan could face a rocky ride.


On Thursday it breached 30,000 cases for the first time, and with an average
daily increase of 15 to 20 per cent, experts like Chase Nelson, a Taipei-based

computational biologist, predict Taiwan could peak at around 200,000
infections a day.


Only 15 per cent of the entire 23.5 million population remain unvaccinated,
but one of Taiwan’s biggest challenges lies in the alarming statistic that 21

per cent of over-75s have resisted the jab – many of them over fears about
side-effects.


That number has barely shifted since the sudden turnaround from a few
dozen cases a day to tens of thousands within a few weeks.
自從幾週內突然從每天幾十例轉變為數萬例以來，這個數字幾乎沒
有變更。

“The outbreak did give a kick in the pants to some people who had been
waiting but it doesn’t seem to be that substantial,” said Mr Nelson, who
estimates that if the vaccine pick-up remains the same, it will take five
months for an additional 10 per cent of over-75s to get just one dose.


“A fraction are just not going to do it. It’s almost like they would take a
chance on something they can’t control the timing of, which is their
infection,” he added. Two medical workers in full PPE talk to each other at
a newly open drive-through COVID test venue in Taipei, Taiwan
「一小部分人不會這樣做。這幾乎就像他們會在其無法控制時機的
事情 (感染) 上冒險一樣，他補充道。

Alarming analysis estimates that 22,000 senior citizens could die if
vaccination rates do not pick up Credit: ANN WANG /REUTERS
令人震驚的分析估計，如果疫苗接種率沒有提高，22,000 名老年人
可能會死亡 - 來源：ANN WANG /REUTERS

The numbers could push Taiwan closer to Hong Kong, which has seen more
than 9,300 – largely elderly – deaths for its 7.3m population, rather than
nearby South Korea, which recently weathered more than 600,000 cases a
day by getting booster shots to more than 90 per cent of those aged 60 and
above.
這些數字可能會使台灣更接近香港，而非附近的韓國；香港的 730


While fatalities have so far remained low, experts warn that true figures are

being masked by a time lag of two to four weeks.
雖然迄今為止死亡人數仍然很低，但專家警告說，真實數字被兩到
四個星期的時間遲滯所掩蓋。

An alarming analysis last month in Taiwan’s Commonwealth estimated
that some 22,000 senior citizens could die if vaccination rates did not pick
up, basing its calculation on Hong Kong’s fatality rates.
台灣《天下雜誌》上個月的一項令人震驚的分析估計，如果疫苗接
種率沒有上升，大約 22,000 名老年人可能會死亡，這是根據香港的
死亡率估計。

For two years, Taiwan was hailed globally as a gold standard for its handling
of the pandemic, keeping deaths below 1,000 and its economy afloat, but
flaws in the country’s exit strategy risked an “underwhelming finish,”
warned Mr Nelson.


“I think it is doing some things right and some things poorly,” he said. “
I do think it is wise to recognise that maintaining absolutely zero Covid with

something as contagious as omicron is not a long-term viable strategy, as is
evidenced by Shanghai.”
「我認為台灣在一些事上做得對，而在一些事上做得很差，」他說。
「我認為明智的做法是認識到，以 Omicron 這樣高傳染性而言，
維持絕對清零並不是一個長期可行的策略，上海就是證明。」

‘Hospitals beginning to be overwhelmed’
「醫院開始不堪重負」

With vaccinations fresh, and plateauing, now was a “well-calculated”
 time to drop restrictions during an outbreak of the milder omicron variant,
he said. This week, Taiwan’s health ministry dropped quarantine on arrival
to seven days.


“At the same time, Taiwan has really done this quickly and they missed an
opportunity to say what they were planning and to prepare people for it,”
Mr Nelson added. “They have instead had this feeling of making up
guidelines as they go along… There is a lot of confusion, understandably,
and I don’t think that has been a wise move in terms of their strategy.”


Taiwan’s testing capacity, in particular, has been pushed to its limits, with

long queues snaking round pharmacies to obtain scarce home kits, and
lengthy waits for PCR tests.
尤其是台灣的檢測能力已經被推到了極限，藥店排起了長龍，
以獲取稀缺的家用試劑盒，且PCR檢測的等待時間也很長。

“Testing capacity is being outstripped. Hospitals are beginning to show
 signs of being overwhelmed to some extent. I think that means the potential
for a lot of deaths unfortunately,” said Mr Nelson.
「檢測能量正在被需求超越。醫院開始在一定程度上顯示出不堪
重負的跡象。我認為這意味著可能會導致很多人不幸死亡，」
Nelson 先生表示。

Professor Chan Chang-chuan from National Taiwan University College of
Public Health pointed to two major shortfalls as Taiwan sought to adjust to
Covid-19 as endemic.
國立台灣大學公共衛生學院的詹長權教授指出，在台灣試圖將
Covid-19 視為地方病的同時，存在兩個主要缺陷。

One had been the failure to order enough Pfizer vaccines for the under-12s,
he said.
他說，其中之一是未能為 12 歲以下兒童訂購足夠的輝瑞疫苗。

Last month, Taiwan approved the use of the Moderna vaccine for children
aged 6-11, but while this mirrors similar moves in the UK and EU, the
hesitancy of the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to greenlight the
shot for children has left Taiwanese parents uncertain.


Secondly, unlike Singapore, the authorities had not empowered the primary
healthcare system or prepared the public enough to self-isolate and treat
themselves at home.
其次，與新加坡不同，當局沒有授權予初級醫療保健系統，也沒有讓公眾做好足夠的自我
隔離和在家自我治療的準備。

In recent weeks, the country was shaken by the deaths of a two-year-old boy
and 20-year-old woman, who had a severe reaction to the virus and were
diagnosed too late.
最近幾週，一名 2 歲男孩和 20 歲婦女的死亡震驚了該國，她們對
病毒有嚴重反應，但被診斷為時已晚。

Singapore, which began the shift already last summer to treat Covid-19 like
the flu, did much groundwork ahead of time and had not experienced any
deaths among children, said Prof Chan.
詹教授說，新加坡從去年夏天就開始轉變，將 Covid-19 視為流感，
提前做了很多基礎工作，沒有出現任何兒童死亡。

“They built a recovery from home programme step by step and gave out
instructions to give people who are staying at home proper and timely
medical advice, like telemedicine, phone calls, consultations,” he said.
他說：「他們逐步建立了在家復原的計劃，並發出指示，為留在家
中的人們提供適當和及時的醫療建議，例如遠程醫療、電話、諮詢。」

“People were educated to be careful even if at home. They have the
information,” he added. “By doing this they reserved critical care capacity
so the most needy can be treated.”
「他們教育人們要小心，即使在家裡。他們擁有足夠資訊，」
他補充說。「透過這樣做，他們保留了重症治療能力，以可以治療
最需要的人。」

Taiwan was adjusting to the rapidly changing situation but needed to step up
measures to encourage the elderly to vaccinate by restricting their access to
crowded gatherings and offering more healthcare assistance to allow them to
take the jab at home, said Prof Chan.
詹教授表示，台灣正在適應迅速變更的形勢，但必須加強措施鼓勵老年人接種疫苗，限制
他們參加擁擠的聚會，並提供更多醫療援助
，讓他們在家中接受疫苗接種。

“In living with Covid we have to control the pandemic to a risk level that
is acceptable.”
「在與新冠共處的過程中，我們必須將大流行病控制在可以接受
的風險水平。」

備註：英國媒體呈現的事實

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