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https://i.imgur.com/dAMMkQf.jpg
1.媒體來源:
BBC
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※ Yahoo、MSN、LINE等非直接官方新聞連結不被允許


2.記者署名:
Frank Gardner
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※ 外電至少要有來源或編輯 如:法新社


3.完整新聞標題:
Five reasons why Putin might not invade
※ 標題沒有完整寫出來 ---> 依照板規刪除文章


4.完整新聞內文:
大略翻譯：

儘管普丁承認了烏東地區兩個共和國的主權，儘管普丁在國境邊緣部署軍隊，但普丁可能真
的不會入侵烏克蘭，5大理由如下：

1.死傷會慘重
烏克蘭會反擊(至少在開戰初期)

2.俄羅斯不喜歡普丁入侵
俄羅斯年輕人的民調顯示不支持入侵烏克蘭

3.西方國家的制裁會讓俄羅斯感到疼痛

4.政治成本很高

5.世界已經聽到普丁的心聲了



The optics look dreadful.

Russia has deployed more than two-thirds of its military combat capability to wi
thin striking distance of Ukraine's borders.

Its 30,000 troops that were supposed to withdraw from neighbouring Belarus at th
e weekend are still there. So are pontoon bridges and other logistic equipment n
eeded for an invasion.

Violence is flaring in the two Russian-backed breakaway republics in Eastern Ukr
aine. Russia's demands from Nato remain unmet and diplomacy has so far failed to
 bring about any significant withdrawal of Russian forces.

Meanwhile western leaders and their intelligence chiefs have been sounding the a
larm, asserting that President Putin has already given the order to invade Ukrai
ne.

And yet, there are reasons to believe that a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukra
ine might not happen. Here are some of them.

1. It will be bloody
Ukraine will resist, at least initially. Its forces are vastly outnumbered and o
utgunned by Russia's but that doesn't mean there won't be severe casualties on b
oth sides.

If Moscow were to undertake a full-scale invasion, capturing the major cities of
 Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odessa by force then it could well involve protracted and cos
tly street fighting where the Ukrainians would be on home ground.

2. It won't be popular at home
A recent poll of young Russians found that a majority were opposed to waging war
 against their Slavic neighbour.

The prospect of large numbers of both Russians and Ukrainians dying in a war of
Putin's choice and Russians coming home in coffins will not play well at home.

3. Western sanctions will hurt
How deep the threatened western sanctions go will, in all likelihood, depend on
how deep Russia goes into Ukraine.

Much as western leaders talk of Nato unanimity the reality is that Germany and H
ungary, for example, which depend in large part on Russian gas, are not as hawki
sh as Britain, which is not.

But sanctions will still hurt the relatively small Russian economy, especially i
f it is frozen out of the Swift banking system as some are calling for.

4. There will be a high political cost
When Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014 it became an international pariah
 for years. The same would happen this time, only worse.

Even China, a strategic ally, has warned against it with its Foreign Minister Wa
ng Yi telling the Munich Security Conference: "The sovereignty, independence and
 territorial integrity of every country should be safeguarded. Ukraine is no exc
eption."

US Senator Chris Murphy believes that contrary to the optics, Putin is in a seve
rely weak position and "a potentially disastrous invasion of Ukraine would be hi
s last resort".

He believes that after 2013 Ukraine's people made it clear they no longer wanted
 to be in Russia's orbit and forcing them back with a costly war would devastate
 the Russian economy and possibly even unseat President Putin.

5. Putin has already made his point
Moscow has now got the West's attention when it comes to the perceived injustice
s of the post-Cold War security order in Europe.

>From Putin's perspective, Nato has reneged on the deal not to expand eastwards t
owards Russia's borders.

Not only have the three Baltic republics (all former Soviet Socialist Republics)
 Poland and other former Warsaw Pact countries all joined Nato but now the prosp
ect of neighbouring Ukraine doing the same is too much for Moscow to bear.

Putin wants this changed or the Damoclean sword of a Russian invasion will forev
er hang over Ukraine.

"He wants to negotiate a new security deal but from a position of strength" says
 Ghanem Nuseibeg, a Senior Visiting Fellow at Harvard. "In a way he has already
partially succeeded with Macron talking of a new security order.

Set against all of the above are some very compelling reasons to believe that a
Russian invasion will happen, and imminently, even if it is confined to just the
 two internationally unrecognised breakaway republics in the east of Ukraine.

The size, scale and nature of Russia's military build-up go far beyond the needs
 of a normal military exercise. You don't ask soldiers to give blood to field dr
essing stations if you're just on manoeuvres.

Moscow's two core demands from the West remain unmet, namely a promise that Ukra
ine will never be allowed to join Nato and that the western alliance withdraw al
l its forces from countries that joined Nato after 1997.

Ultimately, the Kremlin has clearly decided that it cannot tolerate its giant, S
lavic-speaking neighbour Ukraine being firmly in the western camp, becoming part
 of Nato and the EU. President Putin has made it abundantly clear by his actions
 so far that he will do whatever it takes to stop that from happening.



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5.完整新聞連結 (或短網址)需放媒體原始連結，不可用轉載媒體連結:

https://bbc.in/3LRpwDL
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6.備註:

普丁：喔，是喔？ 真的假的？

沒打時說我要打，打了又說我不會打
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