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作者 標題 [新聞] 印度房地產熱：沙丘上的大廈？(WSJ 20100309)
時間 2010年10月17日 Sun. AM 09:38:29
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印度房地產熱：沙丘上的大廈？
Devita Saraf / Prathima Manohar
華爾街日報 2010年 03月 09日 16:35
《福布斯》(Forbes)雜志印度版的印度百富榜已經出爐。在常見的熱門人選以外﹐讓我們感到好奇的是多數新入選者都來自房地產行業。印度是一個以服務業為基礎的經濟體﹐很多人都從事科技行業或其他出口型服務或商品行業。怎麼新入選者都來自房地產行業？
這是一個有關磚頭與灰泥的行業﹐面向的是國內市場。但它以龐大的規模﹐造就了數不清的富豪。隨著人們遷往城市安家立業﹐建築商們在激起他們對建立一個夢想之家的渴望。建築商通過成功上市並吸引外資﹐鍛造了自己的實力。在房價堅挺、需求永無止境的情況下﹐進入印度房地產市場時機正好。
但我們認為﹐印度房地產行業、實際上還有整個印度經濟﹐是建立在不甚牢固的基礎上的。
首先﹐印度即將面臨的整體挑戰是應對城鎮化。我們顯然並沒有能夠把城鎮化當成一種全面、健康的經濟增長策略的一部分。事實上﹐我們在城鎮基礎設施與服務薄弱的情況下仍然取得了值得稱道的經濟成就。
今天﹐儘管只有30%的印度人口居住在城鎮地區﹐但城市貢獻了逾60%的全國GDP和90%的政府收入。城鎮化是經濟發展的一個關鍵組成部分。但從多數印度城市的狀態中可以看出﹐它們的狀況與升級很少被關注。我們可怕而無法忍受的城市條件﹐源於對不斷惡化的條件只存在緩慢而小規模的干預。這都是完全缺乏長遠戰略思考的結果。
因此﹐我們城市的實際規模和經濟能力增長了﹐而住房、供水、能源和醫療等基礎城鎮服務實際上卻是滑坡了。今天的印度城市﹐貧困現象普遍﹐健康與環境衛生薄弱﹐基礎設施陳舊﹐環境惡化﹐生活質量低劣。根據2001年的普查﹐貧民窟在我們城市的所有住所中佔據約25%﹔印度城市中大約26%的家庭沒有衛生設施。
因此﹐印度即將在未來數十年經歷的史無前例的城鎮化將令人望而生畏。根據聯合國《世界城市化展望》(World Urbanization Prospects)報告﹐到2050年﹐將有9.14億印度人居住在城市。目前印度城市人口為三億。如果印度不修繕自己的城市體系﹐它的整個未來都將處於危險之中。
那些從較小的城鎮搬遷到城市的人﹐並沒有指望回到他們的老家。
供水、固體廢物管理、交通、電力和環境衛生是幾個需要立即關注的領域。如果沒有水﹐在新房子裡安裝一套設計師專門定制的淋浴系統又有什麼意義？
印度多數大型開發商今天都在致力於修建它們自己的“一體化城鎮”(integrated township)﹐以避開城市的基礎設施弊端。但有一些這類社區的水、電等無法由私人提供的基本基礎設施已經出現了危機。如果印度城市的整個基礎設施不改善﹐那麼房地產行業是無法逃避這個問題的。
另外﹐“許可證王國”(License Raj)時代或許已經遠離其他行業﹐但在印度的房地產市場卻是活生生地存在著。從購買土地到獲得建築許可﹐房地產業要經歷超乎尋常的磨難才能讓一個項目開工。例如孟買就擁有一套分為很多步驟的建築審批制度﹐項目完工前需要拿到50多個許可證﹐費時從24到36個月不等。
這種繁復的手續加上不明晰的法律﹐使得政客或官僚能夠用上他們的自由裁量權（腐敗）。制度急需修復﹐使之更加透明和簡單。
未經規劃的開發不僅會對房地產投資與開發﹐還會對我們的宏觀經濟和社會發展產生不良影響。印度在21世紀的經濟成就將取決於我們振興舊城、規劃新城的方式。如果繼續像當前這樣無動於衷﹐我們注定將走向一個非常慘淡的未來。
在民用基礎設施失靈的情況下﹐企業無法繼續運轉。另外﹐21世紀的經濟成就也將取決於一個社會可以吸引和培養的人力資本。今天的各個城市正在爭奪可以提高經濟生產率的最優秀人才。如果印度城市不能為它們的人民提供良好的生活質量﹐到某個時候﹐你將看到聰明的人才大量流失﹐給經濟帶來極大的損傷。
以前印度人才流失到西方﹐是因為印度經濟奉行社會主義﹐職業選擇有限。經歷自由化及隨後的騰飛之後﹐印度已成長為一個知識型經濟體。但如果城市不宜居﹐我們可能會再次面臨人才流失──徑直流向更加美好豐饒的牧場。
（編者按：作者Devita Saraf為Vu Technologies的首席執行長﹐Prathima Manohar為孟買智庫Urban Vision總裁）
India's Real Estate Boom Is on Shaky Ground
Devita Saraf / Prathima Manohar
WSJ.com 2010年 03月 09日 16:35
The Indian version of Forbes magazine lists the 100 richest Indians. Apart from the usual suspects, what intrigued us was that most of the new entrants in it were from the real estate industry. India is a services-based economy and a lot the people were from technology or other export services and products. But real estate?
It is a bricks and mortar industry that caters to the local market. Yet it is so vast that it is creating untold riches. As people move to cities to build their careers, builders are fueling their aspirations for a dream home. The builders themselves have built their companies with successful initial public offerings and by attracting foreign investment. It's a good time to be in Indian real estate, with buoyant prices and never-ending demand.
Yet it is our contention that the industry, indeed the economy as a whole, is on some shaky ground.
First of all, the overall challenge India will face is in dealing with urbanization. We have clearly not been able to use urbanization as part of an inclusive and healthy economic growth strategy. In fact, we have been able to attain a commendable level of economic success despite failing urban infrastructure and services.
Today, even though only 30% of India's population lives in urban areas, cities contribute more than 60% of the country's GDP and account for 90% of government revenues. Urbanization is a key component of economic development. But, as reflected in the state of most Indian cities, little attention is given to their well-being and advancement. The dire and unbearable conditions of our cities are a result of slow and small-scale interventions to ever worsening conditions. They are a result of a complete lack of long-term strategic thinking.
Our cities have therefore grown in their physical size and economic prowess even as there has been a virtual collapse in the basic urban services of housing, water, energy, healthcare etc. India's cities today are characterized by widespread poverty, poor health and sanitation, crumbling infrastructure, environmental degradation and poor quality of life. According to the 2001 census, slums now account for about 25% of all housing in our cities; approximately 26% of households in India's cities don't have access to sanitation facilities.
The imminent and unprecedented urban growth that India is going to experience in the coming decades is therefore daunting. According to the United Nations World Urbanization Prospects report, 914 million Indians will live in cities by 2050, compared to 300 million now. If India doesn't fix its urban systems, its entire future is in jeopardy.
Those who have moved from smaller towns to the city are not looking at going back to their hometowns.
The sectors of water, solid waste management, transport, electricity and sanitation are some of the areas of that need immediate focus. What's the point of a designer shower system in your new house if you don't have water in it?
Most large developers in India are today aiming to build their own 'integrated townships' to skip the infrastructure woes of the city. But a number of these communities are already facing a crisis of basic infrastructure like water and power which can't be privately delivered. If the overall infrastructure of India's cities doesn't improve, the real estate industry can't escape it.
Moreover, the License Raj might have vanished from other sectors of the economy but it is well and truly alive in Indian real estate. From buying land to receiving building permits, the ordeal that the real estate industry has to go through to get a project going is irrational. Mumbai, for instance, has a multi-stage building approval system and requires over 50 certificates before completion of a project, which can take anywhere from 24 months to 36 months.
This level of red tape, combined with laws that are unclear, allows politicians or bureaucrats to use their discretionary powers (read corruption). There is a desperate need to fix the system and make it more transparent and simple.
Unplanned development will not only have an adverse impact on real estate investment and development but also on our macro economic and societal development. India's economic success in the 21st century is going to be defined by the manner in which we address the revival of existing cities and the way we plan our new cities. If we continue the current trend of apathy, we are doomed towards a very bleak future.
Businesses can't go on functioning against a backdrop of failing civic infrastructure. Also, economic success in the 21st century is going to be determined by the human capital that a society is able to attract and nurture. Cities today are competing for the best talent that can augment the productivity of their economy. If Indian cities fail to provide a good quality of life to their people, at some point you will see an exodus of smart people, which will be highly detrimental to the economy.
The earlier brain drain of Indians to the West happened because of a socialist economy and limited career options. After liberalization and the economy's subsequent bull run, India has grown as a knowledge economy. But if the cities are unlivable, we likely will have another brain drain -- to greener pastures, literally.
Devita Saraf is the CEO of Vu Technologies; Prathima Manohar is president of The Urban Vision think tank in Mumbai.
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※ 來源: Disp BBS 看板: Hindi 文章連結: http://disp.cc/b/145-EZY
※ 編輯: BonneCherie 時間: 2010-10-18 11:00:15 來自: 61-230-196-109.dynamic.hinet.net
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